Now that it appears imminent that the Motion for Reconsideration from a finding of probable cause against “Tanda”, “Sexy” and “Pogi” would be dismissed, what are some of the likely scenarios that may happen soon?
First, on the issue of how the three Information will be heard by the Sandiganbayan, it is certain that these would be raffled separately since the three were indicted for separate acts, not as part of a conspiracy. Chances are that three separate divisions of the Sandiganbayan will then hear the cases separately.
Second, on the issue of detention, it appears that all three would respect the jurisdiction of the Sandiganbayan when and if it issues warrants of arrest against them. I predict all three would surrender. Nonetheless, as I have repeatedly complained, the rich and powerful are never detained in local jails and made to share a small cell with at least 39 other inmates. Instead, it is almost inevitable that they would be detained in special detention facilities. After all, even former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo agreed to have Senator Jinggoy Estrada detained in an office of the Philippine National Police in Camp Crame. It is a foregone conclusion that all there senators may be housed in similar offices.
Former Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, owing to his advanced age, should also have no problem getting a medical certificate attesting to an illness. He will probably get hospital arrest not only because of precedents, but also because of real health issues.
It is almost certain that all three accused would file motions to allow them to post bail to secure their arrest pending the hearing of their cases. The rule is that bail is a matter of right except in capital offenses where the evidence of guilt is strong.
I have written before about the innovations introduced by the Supreme Court en banc that now makes it mandatory for judges to rule on motions for bail expeditiously. Unlike, therefore, the Ampatuans who have been waiting for almost five years before a ruling could be made on their petitions for bail, it is now certain that the rulings on the three senators would be made anywhere from six months to a year.
What are the chances for the three to be granted bail?
Objectively, JPE appears to be certain to be granted bail since there is no direct testimony that he received money directly from Napoles, nor that be benefited from the allegedly malversed public funds. Jinggoy’s fate will depend exclusively on the weight that the Court will give to the lone testimony of Ruby Tuason. While she will testify that she personally delivered money to Sen. Jinggoy, her testimony is tenuous since she does not even know how much she delivered. Anent Senator Revilla, his fate will depend on the weight that the Court will give to handwriting experts who will testify that all the signatures purporting to be those of the senator are in fact forged.
I predict a 75 percent chance for bail for Enrile; and 50 percent chance of bail for both Estrada and Revilla.
In any case, all three accused are entitled to the presumption of innocence and it is the burden of the Special Prosecutors of the Office of the Ombudsman to prove that they are guilty beyond reasonable doubt. Given though that the Ombudsman has had a below-10 percent conviction rate, I doubt if any of the accused are really losing sleep over their cases.
Forgive me for being pessimistic. But if the prosecution for the gruesome murder of 58 people have been moving at a snail’s pace, how much more for a crime that does not involve murder?
The bottom-line is this: unless and until the five pillars of the country’s criminal justice system get their act together, no rich or powerful individual will be punished for their criminal acts.
I cannot help but admire the Vietnamese for the manner that they have been standing up to China. When the Chinese hosed their vessels, their vessels hosed them back, even if they were terribly outnumbered. And yes, I also admire the fury of its people. I am not condoning the senseless targeting of Chinese businesses in Vietnam, many of whom turned out to be Taiwanese-owned anyway. But the fact is ordinary people are infuriated at China’s expression and they have made their views widely known, especially by the policy makers in Beijing.
Will the Filipinos have the same fury as our Vietnamese brothers? Probably not. When China took control of Mischief Reef away from us, our leaders cried and whimpered but there was nothing heard from the general public.
Its high time that we Filipinos take the issue of our national territory personally. At stake after all, courtesy of the estimated 2 billion to 200 billion barrels of oil in the contested area, is the economic future of all our descendants.
The Vietnamese are correct: the West Philippine Sea is a personal issue to those being bullied.
This post first appeared in http://manilastandardtoday.com/2014/05/22/scenarios-for-the-accused/